Ranked climb calculator

It depends far less on how much you play than on whether your win rate clears the break even line, which is the points you lose per defeat divided by the total of a win plus a defeat.

When a win and a defeat are worth the same, that line sits at 50 percent. When a win gives 18 and a defeat takes 22, it sits at 55, and a player winning 54 percent of the time goes down no matter how many matches are played.

Because the pace is the difference between two nearly equal numbers. At 20 points either way, 55 percent nets two points a match and 52 percent nets less than one, so the same target takes two and a half times longer.

That is also why volume is the weaker lever: three points of win rate beat any amount of extra hours at the old rate.

No, and the screen says pace for that reason. The figure is the average, and it was checked against a brute force simulation of four thousand runs per case: the formula says 100.0 matches where the simulation says 100.9, and 150.0 where it says 153.8.

The gap has a known direction. The formula describes the average pace, while the simulation measures the first time the line is actually crossed, which costs a little more because a bad streak near the end has to be made up.

It is how far the same number of matches lands from the average through nothing but variance, one standard deviation either way. Two hundred matches at 55 percent with 20 points each way are worth 400 points on average, and luck alone moves that by about 281.

So a climb of that size is not proof of anything by itself. It was measured against twenty thousand simulations: 281.6 observed against 281.4 predicted.